Ali Alfoneh 
Research Fellow,  the American Enterprise Institute

and

Alex Vatanka
Scholar, the Middle East Institute

Discussing:

The Khamenei-Ahmadinejad Regime and the
Challenge of the Iranian Opposition


Wednesday, February 3, 2010
12-1:15 PM
Boardman Room
Middle East Institute
1761 N St NW
Washington, DC

video

transcript

The Middle East Institute is proud to host Iranian scholars Ali Alfoneh and Alex Vatanka for a discussion about the ongoing unrest in Iran and the implications for the stability and future of the Islamic Republic. With the Green Movement having proved its staying power, some scholars and analysts are starting to predict the beginning of the end for the regime of Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, while others dismiss the idea as wishful thinking and argue that the Islamic Republic is here for the long-term.


Alfoneh and Vatanka will tackle these questions and their implications for US and regional strategies towards Iran by focusing on two issues. Vatanka will consider the evolution of the Iranian opposition since June 2009 and discuss its future prospects. By highlighting the main drivers behind the protests, he will identify the most significant interest groups that comprise the opposition Green Movement and evaluate how the internal dynamics of the opposition have aided or hampered the common front against the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad regime.


Ali Alfoneh will examine Khamenei's options in the face of this growing opposition movement. How far might he be willing to go in using the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to suppress the revolutionary movement, despite risking his own sovereignty? Or might he be willing to sacrifice President Mahmoud Amadinejad to accommodate the opposition's demands?


BIO:
Ali Alfoneh is a visiting research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He has also been a research fellow at the Institute for Strategy at the Royal Danish Defense College and has taught political economy at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Southern Denmark. He spent a year in Tehran in 2003 as an Independent Researcher at the Institute for Political and International Studies where he began developing his areas of expertise – including civil/military relations in Iran with a special focus on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.


Alex Vatanka is a scholar at the Middle East Institute. He specializes in the geopolitics of the Middle East, and the political and security situation in Iran. Mr. Vatanka is the Editor of Jane's Islamic Affairs Analyst and is a Senior Fellow in Middle East Studies at the US Air Force Special Operations School (USAFSOS). He was from 2001-2009 a senior analyst at Jane’s Information Group covering the Middle East, based in London and Washington. Born in Iran, he holds a BA in Political Science and an MA in International Relations, and is fluent in Farsi and Danish.


Because of the popularity of MEI programs and limited seating, MEI anticipates a capacity audience for the program. MEI wishes to accommodate all registered guests but will give MEI members and supporters priority seating. We encourage you to become an MEI member if you wish to avoid sitting in the overflow room. Early arrival for all is encouraged.