As the nuclear standoff with Iran runs into its sixth year, prospects for a compromise deal remains as remote as ever. The UN Security Council is preparing to implement the third set of sanctions against Tehran for non-compliance with its previous resolutions. In the meantime, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has dismissed Resolution 1803 as “invalid” and declared Iran’s nuclear dossier at the UN a closed case. Still, despite a sense of dejection among Western officials, the likelihood that Ahmadinejad and his far right political base in Iran can be outflanked at home over this issue is a real possibility. For this scenario to materialize, the key is to influence the perceptions and preferences of Iran’s top authority, Ayatollah ‘Ali Khamene’i. That, however, will not be a simple task, as even this officially all-powerful figure has his own political and personal insecurities which are a major contributor to policy disorientation in Tehran.