Research & Publications

The Islamic State's blitzkrieg advances in Iraq last summer, coupled with those in Syria, are the biggest threat ever to the post-1919 borders in the lands of ancient Mesopotamia. Many don't want to characterize Abu Bakr's caliphate as a state, but it has an army, controls territory, and operates administrative structures, even schools and hospitals. And in the broad conflict stretching from eastern Iraq to western Syria and even Lebanon, the caliphate is not going away soon. The grievances and fears of the Sunni Arabs that boost the Islamic State, and the grievances and fears of neighboring communities, run very deep.

As the war against ISIS rages in Syria and Iraq, Egypt is fighting its own war on terror. On October 24, the Sinai Peninsula witnessed the deadliest attack on Egypt’s military in years. Twenty-eight soldiers were killed and another 30 injured when a car bomb exploded at the Karm al-Qawadis security checkpoint in Sheikh Zuweid in North Sinai. Hours later, three security personnel were killed when militants opened fire at a checkpoint in nearby El Arish. Following the attack, Egyptian President Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi declared on state television that "foreign hands” were behind the violence,” and government sources have indicated that violence in Egypt—including Sinai—is linked to ISIS.

The legacy of the Obama administration may be difficult to forecast anywhere in the Greater Middle East, but nowhere does it remain more uncertain than in Afghanistan. The president came into office promising to refocus on what had been widely seen as the neglected or forgotten war. An ill-advised war in Iraq was held accountable for diverting attention from confronting America’s number one enemy—global terrorism. By 2009 there was reason to conclude that without revising American strategy against the Taliban, American forces and their NATO allies were headed toward defeat. By the authorization of a troop surge, Afghanistan became Obama’s war, bound to weigh heavily in how posterity would judge his presidency. Afghanistan’s future now seems precarious following the already sharp drawdown of foreign military forces, together with the decision to have all American troops leave before 2017. There remain during the two years left in the Obama presidency further choices to be made that may determine how U.S. engagement in this country’s longest war is to be remembered.

The dust has still not settled in Yemen following the dramatic rise of the Houthis to power in Sana, and Yemen’s future is difficult to discern. Houthi intentions are not clear, and Yemen’s other political actors have yet to even formulate a reaction to the shift in power. Still taking stock of the situation, leaders both in Yemen and in major international capitals only have managed to say that they welcome the new agreement – the Peace and Partnership Agreement – signed on September 21 by all Yemen’s political parties and President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi under the auspices of the United Nations.

A month after the Houthi conquest of Sana, Yemen’s new political landscape remains uncharted. In Sana, the Houthi leadership is trying to coax Yemen’s political elite into a coalition government, while south of Sana, Houthi forces are pressing to consolidate their military power on the ground. Both efforts are encountering considerable resistance, but the Houthis may prevail still.

In the space of just 48 hours last week, Turkey went from calling the PYD -- the Kurds defending the Syrian border town of Kobani -- a terrorist group to opening up an arms corridor from Iraq to aid its fight against ISIS. That dramatic change in policy, along with growing collaboration between the United States and the PYD (the armed wing of the Democratic Union Party), could tip a month-long battle against ISIS militants in favor of the Kurds.

Libya remains broken and violent. Secular forces made gains against Muslim extremists in Benghazi recently, but the advantage has shifted from side to side since early this year. And two rival governments vying for power amidst a near lawless country with open borders is an ideal setting for the outflow of everything from heightened concerns to munitions and fighters. Yet Libya keeps boiling away on the global back burner.

There have been a number of rounds of border skirmishes between Iran and Pakistan since the first week of October. However, reports that Pakistani forces have returned mortar fire is highly unusual and represents an increase in tensions that have marred this region for years.