Ambassador (Ret.) Harry J. Gilmore discussed US interests in the Southern Caucus region. He argued that, following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of new republics in the Southern Caucus region, the US had focused on two key interests: secure gas flow westward into Europe, and an end to ethnic strife in Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia. Gilmore concluded that tensions remain between the various ethnic groups that encompass the Southern Caucasus, and that conflict resolution must remain a serious component of future US policy in the region.
Gas Flow
According to Amb. Gilmore, the US has been carefully monitoring the flow of natural gas from southern Russia into Georgia, Armenia, and westward to the rest of Europe. Referring to recent explosions, which destroyed parts of the Mozdok-Tbilisi pipeline and led to an energy crisis in Georgia, Gilmore said that the US actively involved itself with concerned governments in repairing the pipeline and restoring gas flow from southern Russia to Georgia.
Gilmore displayed several maps that illustrated the flow of gas from Russia to the Southern Caucus region and presented the region’s energy dependency on Russia. The major pipeline discussed was the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan line. Georgia, according to Gilmore, has benefited greatly from this pipeline through accumulation of transit fees to Georgia’s budget.
Gilmore stated that a recent concern for US policy is Georgia’s decision to diversify its gas supplies to include Iranian gas. Georgia’s choice to receive Iranian gas followed a decision to restore a pipeline that connects Georgia to Iran via Azerbaijan. This alternative to Russian gas came following the energy crisis and the slow response of Russian officials to repair the pipeline to Georgia.
Ethnic Strife
Gilmore addressed the ethnic troubles that continue to plague the Southern Caucasus. He focused on two ongoing conflicts: the Azeri-Armenian dispute over Nagorno-Karbakh, and the Georgian-Abkhaz dispute over Abkhazia.
Nagorno-Karbakh is a region occupied by the Armenia military, where most of Azerbaijan’s Armenian minority currently lives. In discussing the history of the Azeri-Armenian dispute, Gilmore highlighted US interests in ending the conflict. Determined to keep the region stable, the US has hosted peace talks — the most recent held in Washington, DC in March 2006 — to determine Nagorno-Karbakh’s status. The key issues of Armenian troop withdrawal and possible incorporation of Nagorno-Karbakh into Armenia proper are still contentious.
Trouble continues in Abkhazia, a breakaway republic in northwestern Georgia on the Black Sea coast. Abkhazia’s future within Georgia has yet to be determined. Gilmore outlined the US interest in reaching a comprehensive settlement to the conflict, and the return of refugees and internally displaced persons to their homes. He stated that the US is committed to the territorial integrity of Georgia and does not want to see a breakaway republic nestled between Georgia and Russia. Russia played a mediating role in the conflict until 1993, when the UN assumed responsibility for negotiating an end to the conflict. Russia, according to Gilmore, continues to play a facilitating role in the negotiations between Georgians and Abkhaz. Russia was held accountable for supporting Abkhazia’s aim to break from Georgia and bombing Georgian villages following accusations that Tbilisi was giving shelter to Chechen separatists.
Gilmore also talked about Turkey’s reluctance to admit that massacres and genocide occurred against the Armenian population living under Ottoman rule. Turkey continues to describe the deaths that took place in the context of civil strife during the breakdown of the Ottoman Empire, while Armenia maintains that genocide occurred resulting in the death of over 1.1 million ethnic Armenians. Gilmore said that steps had been made toward reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia, but these steps were just the beginning in a process that will surely last for years to come.
Ambassador Gilmore expressed a vital need for US mediation in bringing an end to ethnic hostilities in the Southern Caucus region. Without active mediation, Gilmore expressed doubt that settlements and true reconciliation could be achieved in the near future. He concluded by emphasizing that interests in the region emanating from Iran and Russia must be taken into consideration when examining Southern Caucus stability in the realms of gas flow and ethnic strife.
Ambassador (Ret.) Harry J. Gilmore gave this briefing on April 21, 2006 at the Middle East Institute's Boardman Room.
Ambassador Gilmore served as Dean of the Senior Seminar and Dean of Area Studies at the Foreign Service Institute. Since his retirement, Gilmore has focused on the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia). He was Program Chair for Caucasus Area Studies at the Foreign Service Institute from 1997-2002. He currently lectures and consults on the region.
The author of this article, Ronnie Chatah, is an intern in the Publications Department of the Middle East Institute. Chatah is a first-year MA candidate at George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs, double-concentrating in Middle East Studies and Conflict Resolution.