While most international media are focused on what will happen today or this week between America and Iran, the real story is much bigger—the complete turning of the tables on Iran. While the headlines focus on whether Trump's ceasefire will hold, too many commentators are losing sight of the fact that Iran is trying to surrender (without saying so) before it suffers further humiliating defeats. Of course there will be a ceasefire; Iran cannot take much more, and Israel has reached its stated purpose of eliminating for now the prospect of an Iranian nuclear weapons program. The issue is: what happens next strategically?
In the past, it was Iran and its proxies that too often set the pace and agenda of peace and war in the Middle East. It was Iran that cast its nuclear shadow over its neighbors. It was Iran's threats – and American weakness – that compelled Arab states to hedge their policies and avoid provoking the beast. All of that has been shifting since October 2023, but in a few hours last weekend America's president and military cemented the geo-strategic shift in power in the Middle East away from Iran.
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