Deal or no deal? That has been the central question looming in the standoff between Iran and America since a fragile ceasefire was announced on 8 April before being extended indefinitely by US President Donald Trump weeks later. There has been a flurry of diplomacy, leaks, and mixed messages about the US-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan and, most recently, Qatar.
Barbara Leaf, a former top State Department official for the Middle East, described the confusing back-and-forth of this past weekend as a “cacophony of discord”. It is difficult to know if this diplomacy might produce results or whether this is just a temporary pause before another round of war, but the mounting economic damage in both Iran and around the world is incentivising the participants, as are threats of further damage to regional infrastructure such as energy production sites and desalination plants. These high costs help explain why the belligerents have not slipped back into war.
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Trump’s Middle East Peace Dream Won’t Solve the Iran Mess He Made
