Gönül Tol is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI), where she focuses on Turkish politics, US-Turkey relations and regional dynamics in the Middle East.
A frequent commentator, Dr. Tol has written extensively on Turkish domestic and foreign policy for publications such as Foreign Affairs, The New York Times, Foreign Policy, and TheFinancial Times. Her articles include “Turkey Is Now a Full-Blown Autocracy” in Foreign Affairs (March 2025), “The Indispensable Erdogan” in The New York Times and “Erdogan Sees Nothing But Opportunity in Syria” in TheFinancial Times (December 2024).
Turkey: Ankara’s Nuclear Ambitions in the Post-Iran War Environment
In February 2026, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan suggested that shifting international dynamics could push Turkey to acquire nuclear weapons. That rhetoric, combined with Turkey’s civilian nuclear energy and research programs and its indigenous surface-to-surface missile development projects, has fueled concerns that these capabilities could eventually form the backbone of a Turkish nuclear weapons program.
Turkey has become a major player in Africa, with a particularly strong footprint in the Horn. While economic and energy interests’ matter, one sector now stands at the center of Ankara’s regional activism: defense.
A Turkish court has taken a dramatic step that could reshape the country’s political landscape. It annulled the results of the CHP’s 2023 party congress, effectively overturning the election of Özgür Özel as leader of Turkey’s main opposition party and potentially paving the way for former chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu to return.
As the world’s attention shifts to the Iran war, Gaza is increasingly disappearing from the international spotlight. But more than six months after the United Nations endorsed a peace plan for Gaza, the humanitarian catastrophe continues. Israeli strikes remain relentless, while major international NGOs and aid groups say critical supplies are still not entering Gaza at anywhere near the scale needed.
How is competition for influence in the Horn of Africa among Middle Eastern powers — especially the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel — reshaping the political landscape? Hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj are joined by MEI Senior Fellows Mirette Mabrouk and Gönül Tol to unpack the dynamics driving this rivalry and its implications for conflicts and alliances across the region.
In 2025, jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan made a historic call for the group to disarm and dissolve, raising hopes of ending a 40-year conflict that has shaped Turkey and the wider region. Months later, the PKK symbolically laid down arms in what many viewed as a breakthrough moment for the peace process.
Syria is in the midst of a fragile transition. Many observers see positive momentum, with new humanitarian initiatives underway and fresh funding beginning to flow. But the risks remain serious: regional spillover, deep humanitarian needs, funding shortfalls, Israeli strikes, sectarian tensions, stalled political tracks, and continued reports of abuses by multiple actors.
Turkey Sees Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain in the Iran War
The Iran war has posed significant immediate challenges for Turkey, including rising energy prices. But Turkish officials think that Ankara could reap benefits from the war in the long term.
Nazanin Boniadi: How the World Can Help Iran’s Democratic Struggle
Just weeks before President Trump’s war began, Iran was in the midst of a powerful wave of anti-regime protests spreading across the country. But once the war started, that momentum largely came to a halt. The conflict shifted the focus from dissent to survival and gave the regime an opening to crack down harder. With tighter controls, heightened fear, and everyday life suddenly more precarious, people pulled back from the streets. The protests may have paused, but the resentments that fueled them haven’t gone anywhere.
Lebanon at the Brink: War, Hizballah, and the Fate of Democracy
Israel’s escalating campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah is rapidly turning Lebanon into one of the most unstable fronts in the wider US-Israel confrontation with Iran — pushing an already fragile state to the brink. The war is tearing at Lebanon’s sectarian and political fabric, displacing Shiite communities and deepening polarization between Hezbollah and its rivals.
