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Dr. Karasik is a specialist in geopolitics and geoeconomics for the MENA and Eurasia regions and frequently conducts studies and assessments of future trajectories. He received his Ph.D in history from the University of California, Los Angeles in four fields: Russia, Middle East, Caucasus, and an outside field in cultural anthropology focusing on tribes and clans from Central Asia to East Africa. He wrote his dissertation on military and humanitarian operations in the northern port city of Arkhangel’sk and their impact on political institutions during the Russian civil war.
The fluid and chaotic situation in Libya is confusing and predicting how the ongoing violence in Tripoli will play out and impact the broader trajectory of the civil war is difficult. Nonetheless, Hifter’s campaign appears to be connected to several international and regional developments, the alignment of which seems to have prompted him to determine that this was an opportune time to move forward, dealing a harsh blow to the UN-led peace process.
Observers of political affairs in the Arab world are keeping a close eye on the upcoming Arab League summit, set to be held at the end of March in Tunis. Although Syria will not participate in the meeting, the question of when, or how, to bring Damascus in from the cold after an eight-year suspension from the body will be the most important issue on the agenda.
Yemen’s Humanitarian Disaster: Halting the Famine Threat
Summary
Only several months after the Saudi-led military coalition waged its ongoing campaign against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in March 2015, the United Nations began issuing warnings about famine. Today, millions of Yemenis are on the brink of famine, with about half a million suffering from a cholera outbreak. This paper analyzes the causes of Yemen’s humanitarian catastrophe and offers the Trump administration recommendations for helping the impoverished Arab state avoid a famine.
Yemen War and Qatar Crisis Challenge Oman’s Neutrality
Living on the periphery of the tumultuous Middle East, Omanis do not take their security for granted. Oman has been free of violent unrest since the Sultanate crushed the Dhofar Rebellion in 1976. Yet Oman is situated in a dangerous neighborhood, and the Arab Gulf country is not immune to transregional threats.
The ongoing Qatar crisis poses a major dilemma for Kuwait and Oman. Consistent with their “neutral” foreign policies, these two Arab Gulf states have maintained ties with Doha and seek to resolve the gravest internal Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.) row since the organization’s establishment in 1981. Officials in Kuwait City and Muscat fear that failure to settle the Qatar crisis will break up the council, which would directly undermine vital Kuwaiti and Omani national interests given the potential for such a scenario to dramatically exacerbate regional geopolitical instability.
Bahrain-Malaysia Relations Set to Reach New Heights
On May 3, 2017, King Hamad Bin Eisa Al Khalifa concluded a four-day trip to Malaysia, the first visit by a Bahraini monarch since the two countries established diplomatic ties in 1974 and the initial leg of a tour that also included stops in Brunei and Thailand. This essay takes a brief look at the development of economic ties between Bahrain and Malaysia in recent years, and considers the prospects for their continued growth in light of the outcome of King Hamad’s visit.
Russia and the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.) are developing a unique bilateral relationship. The latest manifestation of growing ties occurred at the biennial International Defense Exhibition & Conference (IDEX) in February when Russia and the U.A.E. announced a deal to co-produce a fifth-generation jet fighter in the Emirates. Although Moscow and Abu Dhabi have been cooperating on a range of economic and security issues for years, this was an unprecedented move.
Qatar is throwing its financial muscle to woo Russia in a bid to regain lost political influence in the Syrian conflict, and the broader Middle East. Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani visited Russia in January to address Middle Eastern geopolitics and energy issues.
As political and humanitarian crises destabilize many Arab states, the Sultanate of Oman is a beacon of tranquility in a tumultuous region. The nation’s unique cohesion and stability is largely attributable to the legitimacy of Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Busaidi, the longest serving Arab ruler still in power. Since ascending to the throne in 1970, Qaboos has transformed Oman from an impoverished state into a wealthy country with first-world infrastructure, a vibrant tourism industry and a military alliance with the United States and Britain.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit last month to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran represented the first, full frontal launch of China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) strategy in the Middle East. The visit has wide implications for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-China relations as the geopolitical chessboard undergoes a major realignment.
Saudi-Iran Tensions Place Pressure on Smaller GCC States
The recent escalation in tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran is throwing the GCC into a crisis of unity. Riyadh’s actions in particular are built on the frustration of the Yemen war and the perception of Iranian encroachment in Arab lands that the Saudi kingdom believes is its domain. King Salman and his son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, feel the kingdom is being ignored by the international community in other hot zones, namely Syria, where the outcome of the war is being determined by Washington and Moscow.
