Analysis

President Donald Trump’s disdain for strategy extends to process: mass National Security Council firings and reliance on a tiny circle of advisors have left the interagency policy process dormant amid the Iran war. The result is improvised, damaging moves like the Strait of Hormuz toll scheme. Reviving a professional, deliberative policy process is essential.

Iran is transforming its Axis of Resistance into a decentralized, Yemen-centered network that leverages the Houthis to threaten both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb, extending Tehran’s coercive reach over the world’s key maritime chokepoints and reshaping the post-war balance in the Middle East and Red Sea.

As part of a report outlining an actionable US roadmap to win in Lebanon, this article posits a successful outcome will require more than just negotiations: sustained pressure on Hizballah and Iran, internal reforms in Lebanon, Arab state help, and more proactive American support — not just money, but advice — for the Lebanese army.

As part of a report outlining an actionable US roadmap to win in Lebanon, this paper examines how the United States might mediate the settlement of Israel-Lebanon differences over the line that divides them into separate jurisdictions.

As part of a report outlining an actionable US roadmap to win in Lebanon, the author discusses options for American military assistance to the Lebanese Army in the effort to disarm Hizballah and regain Lebanese sovereignty.

As part of a report outlining an actionable US roadmap to win in Lebanon, this article analyzes the Tripartite Framework Agreement signed by representatives of the United States, Israel, and Lebanon, and compares previous US-led peacekeeping mechanisms.

As part of a report outlining an actionable US roadmap to win in Lebanon, this article discusses the role of the United States in defeating Hizballah and achieving a permanent end to the conflict between Lebanon and Israel.

As part of a report outlining an actionable US roadmap to win in Lebanon, this article argues that to strengthen the Lebanese state, accelerate economic recovery, and permanently reduce Iran’s influence, the United States should support efforts to dismantle Hizballah’s financial networks, political influence, and parallel institutions as well as reform the judicial system.

As part of a report outlining an actionable US roadmap to win in Lebanon, this article calls on the  international community to focus on helping Lebanon transition from a market participant to a neutral Referee, strictly enforcing competition and the rule of law across both the public and private sectors.

As part of a report outlining an actionable US roadmap to win in Lebanon, the author analyzes previous international donor strategies in Iraq, Lebanon, and Ukraine as Washington and its Gulf partners consider how to assist the new Lebanese government in crafting and implementing a national recovery plan.

President Trump’s family businesses are once again in the spotlight as a new financial disclosure showed they earned $2 billion in income in 2025 — a dramatic increase on the year before, with much of it coming from Gulf entities, raising emoluments concerns. Mounting perceptions of corruption, combined with unresolved crises in Iran and Israel-Palestine, are eroding trust among key partners in the Middle East. With the 2026 midterms approaching, these entanglements could represent a major political vulnerability and further undermine America’s already-strained standing in the region.

The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran may have ended one of the most consequential Middle Eastern crises in decades, but it has not resolved the strategic problem it exposed. Whether the 60-day talks it set in motion will produce a final agreement remains far from certain.Yet the central lessons are already clear: Iran has preserved significant leverage, Washington has had to scale back its ambitions, and Europe and the Gulf face the prospect of protracted regional tension. Europe and the Gulf should therefore use the aftermath of the US-Iran deal to articulate their own “other MoU”: a Europe-Gulf Resilience initiative.

The US administration appears to have great expectations for Iraq’s new prime minister, Ali Falah al-Zaidi. But the expectations need to be tempered.

The 2026 Iran war has made Lebanon a core Gulf security concern, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar now have a narrow opportunity to curb Hizballah’s influence by leading reconstruction, strengthening Lebanese state institutions, and tying economic re-engagement to reform.