Khamenei postures and blinks at the same time

As the war between Iran and Israel continued, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered a speech on June 17, framing the conflict as an “imposed war” and calling for national unity. But instead of using this moment to explore diplomatic off-ramps, particularly as President Donald Trump signaled the possible direct participation of the United States in the war on the side of Israel, Khamenei opted for posturing over negotiation and left the Iranian people even more fearful about the future.

Responding to Trump’s call for “total surrender,” Khamenei warned that US military involvement in the conflict would be a “grave mistake,” stating, “Any US military entry will undoubtedly result in irreparable damage for them, greater than anything Iran would suffer.” He condemned Trump’s threats as “vulgar and irrational,” adding, “Only the ignorant speak to Iran in the language of threats. This nation is not one to surrender.”

Khamenei also said such rhetoric reflects US arrogance and Israeli weakness, noting, “The moment American allies enter the battlefield shows the Zionist [Israeli] regime’s vulnerability.” It is unlikely this approach serves Iran’s interests at a time when the country is under attack and millions of Iranians face mounting uncertainty.

Notably, Khamenei’s remarks included no mention of Islam, long the ideological centerpiece of his worldview. Instead, he appealed to Iranian nationalism, asking a population weary of endless confrontation with Israel and the US for their support. For a leader who spent 36 years insisting that the Islamist cause — fighting Israel on behalf of Palestinians — superseded Iran’s own national interest, this pivot is revealing and smacks of desperation.

In terms of rhetoric, rather than de-escalating, Khamenei’s speech doubled down. He made no reference to the possibility of direct talks with Trump, offered no pathway to a cease-fire, and rejected the idea of Iran “capitulating under pressure.” Instead, he mirrored Trump’s combative tone, engaging in a rhetorical exchange that risks deepening the crisis.

Losing on all fronts

The vast majority of Iranians never wanted this fight. But they now find themselves caught in the midst of a war that they neither started nor consented to. While Israel’s June 13 attacks lack justification under international law, Khamenei’s long-standing threats against Israel and the US have made it easy for Western governments to stand aside. In the West, even critics of Israel’s unilateral strikes have found little political space to defend Iran as the attacked party.

Khamenei is certainly aware this is not a traditional ground war. It is a high-tech conflict, fought from a distance of 1,100 kilometers, with aerial attacks, drones, cyberattacks, and artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted precision strikes at its core. Iran is operating in a domain where it holds no comparative advantage. The smart strategy now is to pull back and minimize additional damage.

This is further underscored by the fact that Iran-backed proxy groups have been inactive in the fighting — aside from the Houthis who have sent a few intercepted ballistic missiles toward Israel — and cannot do much for Iran, a clear sign that even Tehran’s broader regional network is not prepared for sustained escalation. It is time to recognize that Iran’s national interest now lies in de-escalation and development, not open-ended and costly confrontation.

Iran’s resources are severely limited compared to Israel’s US-backed capabilities. At the same time, the regime faces regional adversaries eager to exploit its vulnerability or even seek its territorial disintegration. After decades of internal and external strain that have depleted Iran’s strength, the country needs a strategic pause, not ideological escalation.

And yet, unless one side fully surrenders — a highly unlikely scenario — this war will end only through diplomacy. Iran must signal clear openness to talks, especially direct negotiations with the United States, or risk being seen as the obstacle to peace. Mediation through Qatar, Oman, or Russia may help, but only the US has the leverage to halt Israel’s offensive.

Time to back down

Calls to condemn Israel at the United Nations or in international courts may be symbolically meaningful, but they will do little to stop Israel. For Iran, real relief will come only through political negotiation and strategic concessions to Washington in the hope that the Americans can hold Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu back.

On paper, Khamenei’s speech confirmed that he remains committed to a fantasy of resistance rather than a strategy for survival. He speaks of staying the course and fighting, but it is others who will pay the price, just as they did in the 1980s, when he and his Islamist comrades dragged Iran into eight years of war that ended only after hundreds of thousands had died and the country was economically devastated.

Khamenei’s bluster is not leadership; it is strategic recklessness and putting basic pride over the long-term security of the Iranian nation. With innocent lives on both sides at risk, the moment demands moral clarity and political maturity. Khamenei must abandon concerns about optics and swiftly agree to direct negotiations. Every hour lost could bring the region closer to full-scale disaster.

Iran’s return to diplomacy should include two key offers: to give up or indefinitely suspend uranium enrichment on Iranian soil and to rethink its confrontational policies toward the US and Israel, the twin pillars of the Khamenei-dominated Iranian regional policy of the last few decades. Again, this is not about abandoning sovereignty; it is about ensuring survival. Khamenei’s ideological rigidity is what led Iran into this crisis. The longer the war drags on, the greater the risk of state collapse, and the more the lives and livelihoods of ordinary Iranians will be endangered.

The best outcome now would be that Khamenei’s speeches become less relevant going forward and more pragmatic voices within the regime begin to assert themselves. There are reports that an Iranian delegation has already landed in Oman, seeking ways to talk to the United States about ending the hostilities. If they do, and if they reach Trump and his advisors quickly, there is still a chance for a cease-fire and a diplomatic reset. But time is running out, and the next misstep could be irreversible.

Alex Vatanka is a Senior Fellow at MEI.

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