For years, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader and ultimate powerbroker, has been insisting to his people that there would be no war with the United States or Israel. That claim was shattered when more than 1,000 Iranians were killed in June’s 12-day war. Now he warns against the country sliding into a “state of ‘no war, no peace.’” The diagnosis isn’t wrong—but refusing to confront hard choices is vintage Khamenei.
Rather than signal a strategic rethink, his latest reshuffles merely paper over factional rivalries. And instead of pushing harder for a diplomatic breakthrough while talks still sputter along, many officials in Tehran are clinging to the illusion that China and Russia will rescue Iran from Western pressure. That is hope, not strategy. And it leaves Iran’s fate in the hands of powers that have repeatedly shown they will never risk much on Tehran’s behalf.
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