Netanyahu saved by COVID-19

Israel is undergoing the most severe constitutional, political, health, and economic crisis in its 72-year history, all at the same time. The country went through three consecutive election campaigns in the last 12 months, all under the overarching shadow of Benjamin Netanyahu’s criminal entanglements and centered around his seemingly unbreakable hold on the prime minister’s seat. The COVID-19 crisis provided a totally unexpected crescendo, which Netanyahu skillfully utilized to cast the nation into an all-too-familiar “state of emergency.” Unlike all previous such crises though, this one does not involve the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or military conflict at all. But it nevertheless enabled the resolution of the political crisis, once again in Netanyahu’s favor. His chief rival, former IDF Chief of General Staff Benny Gantz, heading the Blue and White party, a new political conglomerate comprising two new parties and a more established one, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, rose to the level of an existential threat to Netanyahu, vowing to never allow a corrupt, indicted prime minister to remain at the helm. The crossing over of Avigdor Lieberman, a right-wing populist and former Netanyahu ally, created what seemed like a triumph, with a 62-member majority in the Knesset for the “oust Netanyahu” block. 

Last Thursday, following a rare and highly controversial Supreme Court verdict, due to Netanyahu and his crony Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein’s unprecedented refusal to bring the issue to a vote, the Knesset was supposed to elect a new speaker. For the first time in 11 years, the majority was about to vote for a candidate not from Netanyahu’s Likud. 

The next step in the block’s plan was to legislate against an indicted prime minister, preventing Netanyahu from holding his seat, either in this Knesset session or the next one. But then came the incredible combination of the virus, Netanyahu’s political wizardry, and Gantz’s possible mental breakdown, and turned a victory into a total implosion of the anti-Netanyahu block. 

Blue and White was broken overnight into its primal elements. Lieberman was — perhaps for the first time in his long political career — manipulated rather than manipulating, and so at the time of this writing Netanyahu is on his way to forming his fifth coalition, with his solid block of 58 right-wing and ultra-orthodox parties, aided by some 21 members out of the former 62-member block — mostly from Blue and White, and 3 that are all that’s left of the historic Labor Party. Ostensibly due to the “national state of emergency,” they have broken ranks to form a so-called “unity government,” with Netanyahu remaining in office for the first 18 months, to be replaced by Gantz for the same period afterwards. 

The bulk of Blue and White and Labor voters are completely flabbergasted and dismayed. It is not only the actual defection, but also the suddenness and the inexplicability of it all. The magnitude of voter betrayal is such that Israeli politics will never be the same again. 

And the depth and scope of the national crisis? It will probably remain almost as severe. The COVID-19 virus will hopefully be beaten, but the virus of voter distrust in Israeli democracy and in their politician’s good faith has now infected the entire body politic. 

A non-resident scholar at MEI, Eran Etzion is a diplomat and strategist with more than 20 years of experience in senior government positions in Israel.  

Photo by GALI TIBBON/POOL/AFP via Getty Images