No matter where you look, the prospects for Syria and its people in 2020 seem extremely grim. Militarily, the most concerning issue remains the fate of Idlib, where at least three million people – roughly 16 percent of Syria’s in-country population – remain crammed in a killing-zone that encompasses just 3.5 percent of its territory. Though Turkey retains observation posts in Idlib, its ability to deter or prevent deadly regime escalation is at an all-time low. Should all-out war ensue, Ankara will revert to protecting its own national security interests, meaning locking down the border and abandoning Idlib’s population to a humanitarian crisis that will dwarf everything that came before it. In the chaos that would follow, dangerous and highly-experienced al-Qaeda terrorists are likely to escape, having recently re-embraced a global agenda.
Beyond Idlib, conflict looks set to continue in Syria’s northeast, where Arab-Kurdish and Turkish-Kurdish hostilities appear intractable. The U.S. position in the “Eastern Security Zone” will likely face an array of challenges, whether from ISIS, the pro-regime alliance, or the unpredictable Trump White House. Meanwhile, a fledgling armed resistance is growing exponentially in Syria’s southwest; ISIS will undoubtedly resurge, beginning in the central desert and spilling over the Euphrates; and the Iranian-Israeli tit-for-tat dynamic will continue and possibly worsen.
Beyond military developments, two other significant changes are likely to be economic and humanitarian. The passage of the Caesar Bill into law in the U.S. looks set to deal a death blow to what remains of the Syrian regime economy, crippling it internally and isolating it almost entirely from the global economy. If enforced, the bill could see Syria’s economy begin to resemble that of North Korea. Meanwhile, Russia’s veto in the United Nations of Security Council Resolution 2165 means that all cross-border aid into Syria will have ended on Jan. 10 – thereby cutting off all territories outside of regime control from much-needed aid. In so doing, the pro-regime alliance’s long-established strategy of bomb, siege, and starve will receive a huge boost.
Charles Lister is a Senior Fellow and the Director of MEI's Countering Terrorism & Extremism program.
Photo by OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP via Getty Images
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