Ross Harrison is the author of Decoding Iran’s Foreign Policy, a new book published by I.B. Tauris.
The Middle East is in a state of suspended animation, neither plunged into total war nor buoyed by enduring peace. Within this uneasy equilibrium, all await the next moves by the protagonists—the United States, Israel, and Iran—as the dust settles on the 12-Day War of June 2025, in which they all took part. Also waiting are Syria and Lebanon, where Iran’s fading footprint could presage a more viable future.
What makes the current period especially dangerous is the collision of Israel’s and Iran’s 'forward defence' strategies, each rooted in the belief that projecting power beyond their borders is essential to securing the homeland. The success or otherwise of these strategies is critical not only for the future of Israel and Iran, but also for the trajectory of the broader Middle East.
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