The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing on Tuesday, December 5, 2023, featuring MEI Senior Fellow and Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs Program director Khaled Elgindy, and Rula Jebreal, a Palestinian journalist and foreign policy analyst. The briefing delved into the political challenges facing the Palestinian leadership and the evolving public sentiment among Palestinians over who should engage in the post-war political process.
Speakers
Khaled Elgindy
Senior fellow and director of Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs
Rula Jebreal
Palestinian journalist and foreign policy analyst
Rachel Dooley (Moderator)
Deputy Director of Communications
Transcript
The following transcript was automatically generated and may contain errors.
00:00:00:00 - 00:00:33:00
Rachel Dooley
All right. Welcome, everyone. I'm Rachel Dooley. I'm the deputy director of communications at the Middle East Institute. Thanks for joining us today for our on the record briefing on Palestinian leadership's political challenges, I'm joined by my two distinguished colleagues at MEI, Khaled Elgindy, MEI senior fellow and director of our program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli affairs, as well as Rula Jebreal, Palestinian journalist and a member of MEI’s Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs Program Advisory Council.
00:00:33:02 - 00:00:52:18
Rachel Dooley
They'll both discuss the postwar political process and the challenges of constructing a productive coalition among Palestinian leadership. And when we get to the Q&A portion, you can use the raise hand function on your screen to ask a question. And if you're called on, we will unmute you and then you can go ahead and introduce yourself and direct your question to one of our panelists.
00:00:52:20 - 00:01:06:19
Rachel Dooley
I'll go over all of this again later. But for now, let's just jump right into it. I'm going to turn to Khaled first. Khaled, how did we get here with this leadership divide in Palestine and where does it stand right now?
00:01:06:21 - 00:01:32:18
Khaled Elgindy
Thanks. Thanks, Rachel. And it's a it's a pleasure to be here with Rula. So just by way of background, before we delve into the nuts and bolts of this, I just want to highlight some a lot of the moving parts that are going to be shaping Palestinian politics or at least how we think about Palestinian politics going forward.
00:01:32:20 - 00:02:08:10
Khaled Elgindy
So the future of Palestinian politics really depends on on a lot of different factors. One, and, you know, first and foremost, we don't know when and how the current war will end. What will be the status of Palestinians in Gaza? Will there be all or most of the population remaining in Gaza? You know, not to mention all the questions of how Gaza will be if and when any sort of reconstruction can begin.
00:02:08:10 - 00:02:39:06
Khaled Elgindy
But we know, for example, we know some things. We know that it will be a long time before the 1.8 or so million who have been displaced who will be able to return to their homes in large part because there is there's really nothing to go back to. Northern Gaza has been decimated and in some cases rendered--parts of it have been rendered unlivable. And I think that's part of the intent.
00:02:39:06 - 00:02:56:20
Khaled Elgindy
And it's also part of why we don't know what the future is. Israel is talking about a buffer zone. We don't know how big or when. They're also talking about thinning out, maybe permanently the Palestinian population in Gaza. So all of these these things, we don't know.
00:02:56:20 - 00:03:36:03
Khaled Elgindy
We don't know if this ends with, you know, a major push of Palestinians over the border into Egypt, which, of course, would be even more catastrophic than the catastrophe that we've seen. There will be long lasting effects regardless in terms of Palestinian politics going forward. I think it's impossible to overstate the the collective trauma that Palestinians, certainly in Gaza, but all Palestinians are experiencing in this moment.
00:03:36:05 - 00:04:10:00
Khaled Elgindy
And it it's it's not for nothing that Palestinians are are likening this to to the Nakba and in fact has already surpassed 1948 in in sheer numbers of people forcibly displaced and killed. I think this is this will probably go down in history as the deadliest single moment in Palestinian history. And we're not even we're not even finished yet.
00:04:10:02 - 00:04:43:08
Khaled Elgindy
This this is going to become this is going to grow in terms of its deadliness and and the scale of destruction. Some obviously, there's a lot of history, the history of Palestinian division, many of us have been warning for for many years that that division is highly, is fueling instability and violence on a regular basis and that it needs to be resolved.
00:04:43:08 - 00:05:19:09
Khaled Elgindy
There are a lot of reasons why it wasn't resolved. Mainly, Israel was quite comfortable with that division because it could serve as a foil for any kind of political progress. And the United States in the West generally acquiesced in that. The last the third point I'll make is that Palestinian political dysfunction is multi-tiered. The division is only one aspect, but there are many other issues related to institutions, the legitimacy of those institutions, the ossification and paralysis and stagnation of those institutions.
00:05:19:11 - 00:05:48:08
Khaled Elgindy
If, when and how to revive them is complicated by the fact that we're not dealing with one institution, but two: the Palestinian Authority and the PLO, which have a relationship and are supposed to be complementary, but in fact, the PLO has suffered at the expense. The P.A. has been built up really at the expense of the PLO. What is the future of Hamas?
00:05:48:10 - 00:06:11:11
Khaled Elgindy
These are questions that that need to be answered in the context of broader Palestinian politics. And so I know I've gone on too long, but I will I'll end there and then we can discuss more, more detailed issues based on people's questions.
00:06:11:13 - 00:06:21:04
Rachel Dooley
Thanks, Khaled Turning to you, Rula. Can you tell us a bit about the attitudes in Gaza and in the West Bank on who should lead Palestinians?
00:06:21:06 - 00:06:54:01
Rula Jebreal
Thank you, Rachel, and thank you, Khaled. So this is these are the last polls that we have in Gaza before the war. Prior to the October seven attack, almost two thirds of Gazans distrust Hamas and the overwhelming majority wanted a peaceful resolution. They basically said that the Hamas regime is corrupt, inept, and they had no faith in it.
00:06:54:03 - 00:07:32:08
Rula Jebreal
To those who in these weeks and, you know, these two months of war claimed that somehow all Gazans, especially the Israeli authorities who claim that all Gazans are responsible, are complicit with Hamas, 50% of those who live in Gaza were born after Hamas came to power, and over 50% of them are children. So if 50% are children and the other 50% are, you know, two thirds of them distrust Hamas, we can say easily that the overwhelming majority have no faith in Hamas.
00:07:32:08 - 00:08:08:04
Rula Jebreal
Saying that, usually what happens when Gaza is bombarded and we see this onslaught on Gaza--carpet bombing, nothing is safe, nowhere safe--This morning, they’ve been attacking the south of Gaza where they told people to evacuate. The Jerusalem Post this morning says that they kept secret of certain plans. They would not communicate certain plans of attacking a civilian infrastructure in the south just to take Palestinians by surprise and create a wave shock so they can rebel and blame Hamas for what's happening.
00:08:08:06 - 00:08:34:03
Rula Jebreal
That usually is not the case, not that Hamas will be victorious, but usually, you know, violence strengthen. You know, the the party that is so far is saying to Palestinians. Well, the Palestinian Authority didn't achieve anything. And we actually managed to release some hostages or some prisoners, not that Israel released many. They released some and they arrested others.
00:08:34:05 - 00:09:20:18
Rula Jebreal
Regarding the Palestinians in the West Bank and Jerusalem, this is a different thing. Hamas is not popular there. However, the Palestinian Authority is not is not popular at all. People were protesting in the street two months ago calling for the resignation of Mahmoud Abbas and his authority. But there's a poll that came out recently and suggests that if there's any leadership in the future, the two options that Palestinians view as viable for the future or gives you a glimpse of where they would like to be in the future: Either technocratic government led by the likes of Salam Fayyad for the reconstruction of Gaza eventually, but also to handle certain administrative affairs for the Palestinians, and open the door for elections.
00:09:20:20 - 00:09:48:10
Rula Jebreal
Most of the Palestinians who are being interviewed both in East Jerusalem and in in the West Bank and remember, in two weeks, this government, this far right government in Israel, it will be one year in office. They came with a promise and the promise was more annexation and expulsion of Palestinians. And in one year, we have almost three or 430 people who were killed in the West Bank where Hamas doesn't exist.
00:09:48:12 - 00:10:19:12
Rula Jebreal
And this it, despite the fact that the Palestinian Authority continue to coordinate security, yet they are being sanctioned now for the action of Hamas in Gaza and sanctioned financially, meaning Israel is still withholding that from the Palestinian Authority. And now they are preventing people from reaching from basically entering Jerusalem. And there's almost a total blockade in movement both in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, despite the fact that Hamas is not there.
00:10:19:12 - 00:10:49:09
Rula Jebreal
Yet they are being punished even in the West Bank because of Hamas action. In the last four weeks, five weeks, 200 Palestinians were killed. So the Palestinians understand that Palestinian Authority has failed to deliver anything and they're viewed as corrupt and inept. And they view Hamas in Gaza the same way. So to look at the future, this is the one data that most Palestinian Israelis who live in Israel been indicating for a long time.
00:10:49:11 - 00:11:10:21
Rula Jebreal
If the Israeli authorities continue to pave the way and create facts on the ground like this morning, establishing that approval of financing for more settlements both in East Jerusalem and in the West Bank, that means we're living already in a one state reality. So why don't we push for equal rights within that one state reality?
00:11:10:23 - 00:11:34:03
Rula Jebreal
Obviously, this is a new thinking, but it's galvanizing a lot of people, especially among the younger generation. Younger Palestinians from 30 and below believe that this can't be an option to push for that direction. And the older generation is saying Israel will never agree to that, so why push in that direction? There is a huge debate about the future.
00:11:34:05 - 00:11:59:02
Rula Jebreal
But one thing everybody agrees on and it is a regrettable thing that the only time, despite the Abrahamic accord that told Palestinians, well, you know, at certain points we will give you more aid, but no sovereignty and no freedom. Yet it did not curb the attitude of Israel in terms of settlements, illegal settlement, or in terms of violence against Palestinians.
00:11:59:08 - 00:12:18:16
Rula Jebreal
And thus the Abrahamic Accord didn't guarantee anything for the Palestinians. But the issue of the Palestinians is back on the table. And this is a terrible incentive because of violence. And this is a terrible message that I think whoever is thinking for the aftermath need to address.
00:12:18:18 - 00:12:19:18
Rachel Dooley
Thanks, Rula.
00:12:19:20 - 00:12:21:09
Rula Jebreal
Thank you.
00:12:21:11 - 00:12:40:11
Rachel Dooley
All right. At this point, we're going to welcome questions from our participants so you can go ahead. Please use the raise hand function on your screen. And when I call on you, we will unmute you and then you can go ahead, introduce yourself and your organization. And then please direct your question to one of our panelists. And if I don't get to you right away, it's great if you leave your hand raised as well.
00:12:40:11 - 00:12:59:13
Rachel Dooley
That's helpful for me. And to start out, I'll bring in a question that was sent to me from Nahal Toosi at Politico. “What are the odds of starting from scratch and building a new governance structure for Palestinians?” Khaled, I'll turn to you first.
00:12:59:15 - 00:13:27:16
Khaled Elgindy
It's I don't know what it means to start from scratch. I don't know why one would want to start from scratch. And there are institutions that aren't properly functioning. But but it would seem more logical that we'd want to build on those or Palestinians would want to build on those, improve them or activate them, rather than just knock down the house and and start over.
00:13:27:20 - 00:13:54:00
Khaled Elgindy
That may be what happens. But at the moment, I think we we can only think in short terms. You know, as I said, I think this is a moment that is of a historic nature. It is it is an event that is on par with 1948, 1967. And other cataclysmic moments that fundamentally reshape and redefine Palestinian national consciousness.
00:13:54:02 - 00:14:47:03
Khaled Elgindy
So this is a, the impact of this will be generational. It will not be the next week or next month or six months from now. Only we can only think in terms of, you know, what happens in the next one, two, three, four, five years. But but if this moment is anything like 1948, then it may very well force Palestinians to start from scratch. In 1948, completely swept away whatever weak political leadership existed at the time. And then it took another generation for a new leadership and new institutions, new movements to to emerge. That may be what happens.
00:14:47:05 - 00:15:18:11
Khaled Elgindy
I'm not a historian, but if I were, I would predict that that would be the what what the coming 20 years would hold. In the meantime, I think the focus should be on how do we make the the P.A. functional and as well as the PLO. From my standpoint, the P.A., I think Rula gave described it as a hopes for a technocratic government.
00:15:18:13 - 00:15:44:19
Khaled Elgindy
I think that's a very wise approach to de-politicize the Palestinian Authority, which had been politicized at the expense of what is the more logical political address of the Palestinians, which is the PLO, which which is the actual body that represents Palestinians in world forums like the United Nations and that has embassies around the world. It's not the Palestinian Authority.
00:15:44:19 - 00:16:17:11
Khaled Elgindy
The Palestinian Authority was conceived as a as an administrative body that would eventually, at some point down the road, graduate, graduated to a full blown state. But it never did so. There's value in keeping the Palestinian Authority, but not as a political body, but mainly as an administrative service provider through through which the international community can can operate.
00:16:17:13 - 00:16:42:23
Khaled Elgindy
But the the main political address, in my view, really should be a revived PLO that--I know this is going to be deeply unpopular--will have to include Hamas. I'll just I'm just going to make three quick points that are highly unpopular, but I'm just going to leave them with you. The first is that Hamas is not going to be destroyed.
00:16:43:00 - 00:17:11:03
Khaled Elgindy
I think anyone who still harbors that illusion and it's clear that the the Israeli leadership still does and, to a large extent, the Biden administration does. That is simply a recipe for endless death and destruction. This war will end only when there are more sober, rational, level headed thinkers who come to the inevitable conclusion that Hamas cannot be destroyed.
00:17:11:03 - 00:17:43:14
Khaled Elgindy
You can't simply bomb a movement, a set of ideas out of existence. You can bomb, you can destroy leaders, and you can destroy weapons. But new leaders and new weapons will inevitably emerge, particularly because Hamas is primarily a resistance organization. And and as long as there is a need for resistance, as in occupation, blockade, repression and so forth, then something, you know, Hamas will exist or something like Hamas will exist.
00:17:43:14 - 00:18:31:11
Khaled Elgindy
So it is fundamentally irrational and highly, highly counterproductive to imagine that Hamas will be destroyed completely. The second point I'll make, and this is also will make me very unpopular. The Palestinian Authority is not going to return to Gaza any time soon, at least not under its the way it's currently constituted. Something along the lines of what Rula described as a as a as a technocratic government, perhaps, but but not something led by the Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, who is thoroughly discredited and has been a complete failure, frankly, as a leader for most of the last 15, 16, 17 years.
00:18:31:13 - 00:18:57:09
Khaled Elgindy
The last thing I'll say and again, this will make me even maybe even more unpopular is we're unlikely to see elections any time soon for the for the Palestinians, for Palestinians inside the occupied territories, even after a year or more, it's hard to imagine, even if the war ends tomorrow, you're still going to have massive dislocation, a huge humanitarian crisis.
00:18:57:09 - 00:19:27:19
Khaled Elgindy
People cannot return to their homes. Enormous collective trauma. That's not an environment that is conducive for holding an election. And of course, there can't be elections without Gaza. So again, I go back to this idea of a technocratic government that may or may not be, that probably won't be elected, but can still function with the consent of all Palestinian political actors:
00:19:27:21 - 00:19:54:23
Khaled Elgindy
Fatah, the main the main factions of the PLO, as well as Hamas. That's something that is probably more realistic than than an election that even if it could be held, would produce such a skewed outcome. I mean, an election is a temperature reading of a society in a given moment, and that society right now is in deep, deep distress.
00:19:54:23 - 00:20:07:06
Khaled Elgindy
And so the outcome is likely to to reflect that. And it's not going to be one that brings stability. So I'll just leave it at that.
00:20:07:08 - 00:20:15:04
Rachel Dooley
Thanks, Khaled I'm going to turn to Nadine from ABC News, who has her hand raised. Nadine go ahead.
00:20:15:06 - 00:21:04:03
Nadine Shubailat (ABC News)
Hi, I have two questions, actually, I was wondering, one, could you give us, please, the background about Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government in previous governments regarding Hamas? Because my understanding is that they empowered them over Abbas. And the second one is the the corruption that is endemic in Palestinian governance. If we emerge from this and if there is actually a Palestinian government, how can Palestinians ensure that the people governing them aren't corrupt? Where's the oversight committee for that? So it's a two pronged question, and I'm sorry if I didn't ask it eloquently.
00:21:04:05 - 00:21:46:20
Rula Jebreal
So regarding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, just understand 30 years ago when he launched his entire you know, he restructured himself after he was in the United States, he came back and launched his career. He never changed his mind about never conceding. You can look back at when he was testifying to become a UN ambassador, etc., and testifying in the U.S. about what his views. His views never changed that Israel needs to control in perpetuity the entire country, the entire country, everywhere.
00:21:46:22 - 00:22:14:10
Rula Jebreal
And he always, there's actually on YouTube some debates where he, in the United States, where he claims that the only one Israel can ever feel safe if they militarily can override whatever solution, whatever political solution to grant Palestinians sovereignty or any state or any freedom. So that means that he always thought that Israel need to control the whole land.
00:22:14:12 - 00:22:54:09
Rula Jebreal
He is on the record to his party, the Likud Party, in 2019 and even previously telling them that Hamas is an asset, that it's part of their strategy to sponsor Hamas. Whoever needs to finance Hamas need to finance Hamas. I know for a fact from my interviews with the Qataris that Jared Kushner was sent on multiple occasions to the Gulf on behalf of Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu to ask for them to finance, to deliver basically, direct finance to Hamas.
00:22:54:11 - 00:23:19:12
Rula Jebreal
Jared Kushner is now, you know, getting $2 billion from the Saudis and he got 200 million from the Qataris on top of other other things. So when we talk about corruption, you know, we should also address the corruption within former White House officials. So how did he how did he strengthen Hamas? In 2011, he started a series of negotiation with Hamas.
00:23:19:12 - 00:23:44:08
Rula Jebreal
He released hostages and he chose the perfect timing to do that. It was a time when the United Nation--when when the Palestinian Authority went to the United Nations for statehood, they wanted to be they wanted to go to the General Assembly and be recognized as a state. That's the moment where Bibi Netanyahu timed his timing to release the hostages for one prisoner, Gilad Shalit.
00:23:44:10 - 00:24:17:05
Rula Jebreal
That soldier was in and he was in captivity for five years. But that's the moment. The timing is vital. Who told me about that was Yaakov Perry, former head of Shabak, who gave interviews to three or four journalists at the time. And he said that Bibi Netanyahu and excuse my language shows that timing to undermine the Palestinian Authority that was trying to use diplomacy to achieve statehood and freedom from the occupation.
00:24:17:07 - 00:25:02:02
Rula Jebreal
He chose that timing. He lobbied for them to get financed. We know that his minister, Smotrich, on video talking about how Hamas is an asset and the Palestinian Authority is a liability. So you can see that this this was always part of their governing philosophy. And this is about Bibi Netanyahu. Why is that? To justify to the world, you know, to use Hamas as a scarecrow, saying, well, you know, we have these this group that is extremist, terrorist, Islamist, etc., when they use fear as a weapon to say we can never, never concede the territories, we can never have any deal, There's no,
00:25:02:04 - 00:25:32:12
Rula Jebreal
They always continue to say that everybody is more or less extremists and they can never trust the Palestinian Authority because they are discredited. Well, they discredited them. They weakened them and undermined them. And that, you know, and somehow they they proved Hamas's point by saying the only way to deal with Israel is to use violence. On September six, apologies, On October 6th, there's a Hamas brigade on the border.
00:25:32:14 - 00:26:09:00
Rula Jebreal
The Hamas brigade was and it's it's a huge brigade on the border between Israel and Gaza. They took that brigade and took them out from Gaza, from the border, the south, and took them to the West Bank, which means that. But Bibi Netanyahu’s coalition continue to believe that Hamas was contained. Somehow. They they they they had a feeling that Hamas was not any more a military threat, that the priority for them was to confiscate more land and help the settlers who are stealing more land and terrorizing Palestinians in the West Bank.
00:26:09:06 - 00:26:46:20
Rula Jebreal
This was part of the same strategy. Obviously, this assumption collapsed on October seven. Regarding your other question and apologies regarding the Palestinian Authority on the corruption, we had a moment with Salam Fayyad and maybe Khaled can you know, explore that. Salam Fayyad was the prime minister, but he devised a mechanism that was brilliant to track down every financement from whatever country, organization, and put it online.
00:26:46:22 - 00:27:18:02
Rula Jebreal
What what they received and where is that going to be spent? The Palestinian Authority continued to do that for a while and continued to do it. The corruption is not that they use the money that they they they were given to by the by the European and others to his pocket. I believe what what when we talk about certain corruption of the Palestinian Authority, I believe that the charge against Abbas himself, that his son gets certain contracts and privileges, etc..
00:27:18:04 - 00:28:11:03
Rula Jebreal
I don't know. And I admit that I didn't I didn't I'm not well informed. If there's more charges that go beyond that, maybe Khaled can expand in that. Another things I just want to say that in May of this year, the European Parliament, their opinion and discovered that in the last three years Israel destroyed for the amount of €200 million of projects that were built in the occupied territories in terms of schools, clinics, agricultural projects. The European Parliament itself in June, asked the Israeli authority to reimburse them or to do something about that, the amount of money that was spent to help the Palestinians and then that's a lot of money in
00:28:11:03 - 00:28:45:09
Rula Jebreal
projects was destroyed completely. We know that Israeli forces bragged about stealing from Gaza, 5 million shekels and taking them to the coffer of Israel. Again, the war is not over. But I mean, if you talk about corruption without talking about the structure that is facilitating this kind of behavior, the West Bank, the occupied territories are lawless. There's no law. So anything is possible.
00:28:45:09 - 00:29:12:10
Rula Jebreal
I'm not justifying the Palestinian Authority. But what I'm trying to say is the whole structure is under martial law. And under martial law, the priority is to confiscate land, to protect the settlers, and to destroy whatever structure or help destroy whatever civilian structure for Palestinians. That kind of landscape doesn't help fighting corruption. Thank you.
00:29:12:12 - 00:29:35:20
Khaled Elgindy
Just just quickly to add to to the point. I mean, Rula’s absolutely right that you have to look at the structural causes of this corruption. Why is the PA--where does PA corruption come from? Well, for one, there is no parliament. Why is there no parliament? That would normally provide oversight and some kind of check on the executive authority.
00:29:35:22 - 00:30:20:08
Khaled Elgindy
Mahmoud Abbas simply rules by decree. He issues a presidential decree, that becomes the law of the land, or at least the law of Area A. So why is there no parliament? Well, the reason there's no parliament is because there is a political division between Hamas and Fatah that's been in place since 2007. And so we can't - part of the problem of of why the peace process has has failed, why the PA leadership, the Palestinian leadership has gotten progressively weaker and effectively lost control in parts of the northern west Bank, in Jenin and Nablus, for example.
00:30:20:10 - 00:30:52:09
Khaled Elgindy
And that is it's not just institutions that Palestinians need. They need politics. Without politics, without institutional politics, which have been completely paralyzed since 2007, then those institutions can't function properly. So you need to have a parliament that is populated with political parties and who propose ideas and oppose others who represent some kind of opposition to the executive branch.
00:30:52:11 - 00:31:27:13
Khaled Elgindy
You need committees that oversee the functioning of ministries. That kind of transparency is not a purely technical exercise. It can only function in a world where Palestinian politics also exist. So part of why the peace process failed is because it froze out Palestinian politics while focusing on these technical institutions that simply couldn't work. And we come back to this question of Hamas.
00:31:27:15 - 00:31:54:16
Khaled Elgindy
What role will Hamas play in future, in the future of Palestinian politics? It will continue to exist. It therefore has to be a part of Palestinian the Palestinian political landscape, whether it's the PA or the PLO or both. Otherwise, none of none of those those those institutions can can function properly.
00:31:54:18 - 00:32:16:10
Rachel Dooley
Thanks, Khaled, and thanks, Nadine. I'm going to move to a question sent to me from Dan DeLuce at NBC. :Could you either of you provide insights into how regional governments are viewing the PA and Hamas and the future of Gaza and the West Bank?” Khaled, I'll start with you.
00:32:16:12 - 00:32:46:00
Khaled Elgindy
Well, most regional governments are quite ambivalent about the Palestinian political scene in general. On the one hand, there's really no love for Hamas. Most regimes in the in the Arab world are quite hostile toward Hamas, ideologically and for other reasons. Next door in Egypt, for example, they waged a war against the Muslim Brotherhood and overthrew a democratically elected government.
00:32:46:02 - 00:33:21:22
Khaled Elgindy
And Hamas, of course, is an extension of the Muslim Brotherhood. So so there's genuine hostility toward Hamas, but there's also a great deal of or I should say, there's very little confidence in the leadership of Mahmoud Abbas, and for good reason. He's not been an effective leader. And and so it's one of the things that I think have led to this this Abraham Accords dynamic, this dynamic of normalization is, well, look, we can't be more Palestinian than the Palestinians themselves.
00:33:21:24 - 00:33:58:22
Khaled Elgindy
And so we're not going to sit around and wait for this unicorn called a two state solution for us to pursue our geopolitical or economic or technological interests. And so, you know, well, let's just sidestep that Palestinian dysfunction and and move along without it. Of course, that also it doesn't work. So I think in general, there is a there's a lack of confidence with regard to all Palestinian political actors going forward.
00:33:58:22 - 00:34:32:05
Khaled Elgindy
But it only underscores the point that I'm trying to make here. Palestinians need to take control of their own political destiny. They cannot change realities on the ground. They're simply too weak. But for them to have any influence at all, to head off even greater catastrophe, they need to have a coherent, credible political leadership. History has shown time and again when Palestinians lack that political leadership, that's when terrible things happen to them.
00:34:32:05 - 00:34:58:14
Khaled Elgindy
And that is exactly what is happening now. So the priority has to be on Palestinians to put their internal house in order, reforming the PLO, whatever, doing whatever they need for the PA to function or simply doing away with all of those. But but that's a conversation that Palestinians need to be having, start having now.
00:34:58:16 - 00:35:06:02
Rachel Dooley
Thanks. Nadine, I see your hand up again. Do you want to ask another question?
00:35:06:04 - 00:35:34:06
Nadine Shubailat (ABC News)
Yes, please. If you don't mind, I my other question is the name of Dahlan has been floated in several media articles and allegedly with the supports of the Saudis behind him. And he is quite frankly an assassin and should not be considered as a future leader of the Palestinian people. In my opinion. But I wanted to know whether you had any insight into that and why his name is being floated.
00:35:34:08 - 00:35:57:02
Rula Jebreal
If I may. So, of course, I mean, look, let's look at, for example, whether it's the Abraham Accords that to I believe two days ago, Yair Lapid, who is considered moderate Israeli politician, was considered the antithesis to Bibi Netanyahu, released a paper on Facebook where he outlined his vision for for us and for the West Bank.
00:35:57:04 - 00:36:27:13
Rula Jebreal
And he basically said the exact same thing like Bibi Netanyahu, perpetual occupation. But the interesting part about what he said is how he and represent the Israeli establishment, how they view those Arab regimes. Basically, the only good Arab regimes are the one that endorse Israeli occupation. Why we have authoritarian regimes in the Middle East divided and a pro-American or against America depends on their stance on Israel.
00:36:27:15 - 00:37:07:01
Rula Jebreal
I mean, two weeks before the war, everybody was complaining about Menendez, Senator Menendez, you know, corruption. And then now nobody talks about that. Americans are rushing to Sisi, saying well, we'll give you more money knowing very well how corrupt his regime is, just to take some Palestinians. So the whole foreign policy, you know, Middle Eastern foreign policy of President Biden, both Democrats and Republicans, is catered to enhance, enforce, enable, aid, and abet autocrats in the region that somehow endorse Israel policies, especially the occupation.
00:37:07:03 - 00:37:32:03
Rula Jebreal
So Dahlan is part of the same thinking, same equation. Any thug, any thief, any murderer, any whatever you want to call them, any butcher, anybody that likes to chop up journalists, if they endorse certain policies, they're part of the good groups, they're part of the good guys, and they're willing to, you know, get away with crimes. Do we think Dahlan will play a role?
00:37:32:04 - 00:38:08:10
Rula Jebreal
Well, in the and probably in the delusional of some Israeli leaders and Arab leaders, there's space for somebody like Dahlan. You know, we remember Ahmed Chalabi in Iraq and others. So it's not surprising. However, reality usually kicks in. Palestinians clearly don't appreciate and don't want somebody like Dahlan or for that anybody that resemble those characteristics. The most famous man in Palestine today or the most popular, let's put it this way, he's sitting in jail.
00:38:08:12 - 00:38:44:12
Rula Jebreal
That's Marwan Barghouti again. You know, we don't know the theory. We didn't test the theory. What he would do when he is out of jail, how would he behaved, etc.. Why? Why is he popular? It's because of the issue of resistance. It goes to what Khaled said. You cannot take you cannot bomb out of people the desire to live as a free nation, the desire and the you know, that this basic right to live as a free human being, as, you know, live a life of dignity without the military repression.
00:38:44:14 - 00:39:07:15
Rula Jebreal
You know, when when when when I hear people saying, well, before September there was a cease fire. Yeah. For the Israelis, for the Americans, for the West, there was never a day of cease fire for the Palestinians ever been. And to think that you can replace the Israeli authorities or Israeli military or the army with another force that is as repressive. People will protest, will rebel.
00:39:07:19 - 00:39:28:15
Rula Jebreal
So, again, either we address this issue as an issue of, you know, a human being. We all deserve and need freedom and dignity and human rights. Otherwise, we will find ourselves from one violent attack to another to a perpetual state of war.
00:39:28:17 - 00:39:36:16
Rachel Dooley
Thanks, Rula. Thanks, Nadine. I'm going to go to Ellen Knickmeyer, who has her hand out from the Associated Press.
00:39:36:18 - 00:40:54:02
Ellen Knickmeyer (Associated Press)
Hi. Thank you for doing this. I had a couple questions. Do you know if any work has actually started to try to somehow arrange a creation of a technocratic government for Gaza? And how, would Abbas agree to that? Would he agree like to some temporary governor, a Palestinian governor, like Fayyad in charge of Gaza? How how would that work and how is that started? And and if that wouldn’t work, how do you bring that about? And my other question is, Americans say that before October seventh, when negotiations were going on for the Saudi-Israel normalization, that there was actually direct dialog or dialog happening between Israelis and Palestinians on on on the issue. Any idea who were the people speaking on the Palestinian behalf and those kind of like private negotiations?
00:40:54:04 - 00:41:25:24
Khaled Elgindy
On the first question about a technocratic government, I don't know of any discussions to bring about a technocratic government. We know what Mahmoud Abbas’s leadership has said publicly, and that is one, they will not return to Gaza on the backs of Israeli tanks. So there is that. And two, they will not return to Gaza without a clear pathway to statehood.
00:41:26:01 - 00:41:54:23
Khaled Elgindy
Obviously, there are already Israeli tanks on the ground and the Palestinian leadership, which is already quite unpopular in the West Bank and Gaza, is not going to put itself in the position of essentially committing political suicide by returning to Gaza after it's been destroyed. And on the graves of tens of thousands of Palestinians. That would not be wise.
00:41:55:00 - 00:42:24:14
Khaled Elgindy
Now, it's possible to imagine a technocratic government going forward, but that would need to be as a matter of intra-Palestinian consensus. In other words, Hamas and other groups would need to consent. There would need you need to have an agreement of all the Palestinian and political factions for that to happen. That's possible. But I don't know that those talks are happening or that there's any movement in that direction.
00:42:24:16 - 00:42:59:08
Khaled Elgindy
On the on the second point, I'm not sure which Israeli-Palestinian dialog you're referring to. We know that in the Spring there was there were these summits held in Aqaba and Sharm el-Sheikh between Israelis and Palestinians under U.S. auspices, mainly to try and bring calm to what was then the deadliest period in the West Bank since since 20 years, it's since then has gotten considerably worse.
00:42:59:10 - 00:43:32:13
Khaled Elgindy
But but that's the only dialog that I'm familiar with. There were no negotiations happening. And in fact, when those communiques were released on, you know, what steps the two sides would take to de-escalate, reduce violence and reduce provocations at holy sites and Jerusalem and so forth, once those communiques were were issued, others in the Israeli cabinet immediately dismissed them and said it's just it's not worth the paper they're printed on.
00:43:32:15 - 00:44:04:14
Khaled Elgindy
And they were, in fact, dead letters. So this is not a I don't see any possibility of a fruitful Israeli-Palestinian dialog at a political level that addresses the root causes of violence and the fundamental political issues of ending Israel's occupation and colonization, repression and so forth. That's not going to happen with this government. This far right government in Israel.
00:44:04:14 - 00:44:43:10
Khaled Elgindy
And it's also not going to happen with this U.S. administration because they they have not been really inclined. It's not clear to me that they understand what is actually needed to to have a real process, a meaningful political process, but also because their their credibility for Palestinians has been completely destroyed. I can't imagine any Palestinian leader any time soon accepting the U.S. as a as a peace broker of of any sort.
00:44:43:12 - 00:44:51:24
Rachel Dooley
Thanks, Khaled. Thanks, Ellen. I'm going to turn to Ethan Bronner from Bloomberg with his hand raised.
00:44:52:01 - 00:45:15:15
Ethan Bronner (Bloomberg)
Thanks, Rachel. Khaled, I wanted to ask you, you talked about the need to Palestinians to restore their internal political structures and dialog. I mean, these these are very important things to say, but I don't understand how they're going to happen, especially. I mean, they've been terrible until now. And here we have half the society decimated, as you said earlier.
00:45:15:17 - 00:45:37:22
Ethan Bronner (Bloomberg)
So, I mean, it's the right thing to say. But what does it mean to say it? What is the plan here? How can they possibly do what needs to be done? And obviously, if they don't do what needs to be done, no one else is going to do it for them. That we've seen for for a century. So what is your specific recommendation, so come down from that 10,000 feet, if you could? Thank you.
00:45:39:16 - 00:46:27:16
Khaled Elgindy
Yeah, I'm actually writing a piece on this now, which I'm hoping to finish soon. And it's it's like you said, it's a it's an it's almost an impossible ask. And I think there is a formula. There is a way forward for some kind of interim transitional Palestinian political arrangement. And it involves something like a downgrading of the Palestinian Authority to a technocratic government that rules with or that that governs and provides services on the basis of consent by Palestinian political factions, but does not include any of them.
00:46:27:18 - 00:46:56:01
Khaled Elgindy
So you would have an entirely technocratic government. I see that as the only real way for a Palestinian Authority to operate in both the West Bank and Gaza. One, you need the consent of all Palestinian factions, including Hamas. We're not there yet, but it's not totally impossible. And and and that would also allow it to to receive international donor assistance to to be able to carry that out.
00:46:56:01 - 00:47:30:02
Khaled Elgindy
I'm not especially confident in in that, but I don't see any any other possibility for a PA return to Gaza. And the second piece of it is we're downgrading the PA to a technical service provider. Then we need to upgrade the PLO to to become the umbrella organization for for the entire Palestinian national movement, one that is genuinely representative.
00:47:30:04 - 00:48:06:00
Khaled Elgindy
And that means groups that are outside the PLO, like Hamas and and others to join. That is, all of either of these components have major pitfalls and problems, not the least of which is the zero sum thinking in Israel, certainly, but also to a large extent here in Washington with regard to Hamas and the kind of annihilationist approach to Hamas, which which I said is is not going to happen.
00:48:06:02 - 00:48:46:02
Khaled Elgindy
And so it's not an easy formula, but it is the only theoretical formula that I that I see that is that is possible. It requires a lot of shift in in thinking in Israel, in the United States, among Palestinians, Palestinians, society, the Palestinian political factions. And it's a tall order, admittedly, but I don't see any other any other way if if we're simply going to prop up a broken, dysfunctional Abbas led P.A. and drag them to the Gaza Strip and throw some money at them.
00:48:46:03 - 00:48:54:22
Khaled Elgindy
I mean, that's just a recipe for failure. But but that seems to be what what the administration has in mind.
00:48:54:24 - 00:49:06:04
Ethan Bronner (Bloomberg)
Rachel, I just want to have a quick follow up, if you'd allow me. You're right about the absolutist view in Israel and in the United States, but it's also a relatively similar view in, the P.A. and in Fatah.
00:49:06:06 - 00:49:14:08
Ethan Bronner (Bloomberg)
I mean, the desire of Fatah to come to terms with Hamas and bring it into the PLO. Is it about zero? From what I can see? Am I wrong.
00:49:14:18 - 00:49:19:09
Rula Jebreal
Yeah, you're wrong. Sorry, Khaled?
00:49:19:11 - 00:49:21:10
Khaled Elgindy
Go ahead. Go ahead, Rula.
00:49:21:12 - 00:49:29:21
Rula Jebreal
You're wrong. There was a dialog, actually, between, I believe, in July, Abbas met with the--
00:49:29:22 - 00:49:30:24
Ethan Bronner (Bloomberg)
Yes, there was, but it failed.
00:49:31:00 - 00:49:31:14
Rula Jebreal
I understand, but the fact that it...
00:49:32:08 - 00:49:59:16
Rula Jebreal
That's why it failed. The pressure was not from the P.A. The pressure was from the United States and others to abort, to abort, to abort. Every time there was any attempt for national reconciliation, they were told clearly, you cannot go further. You need to stop because you will be sanctioned, etc.. Look, Abbas is doing exactly what the administration is telling him.
00:49:59:18 - 00:50:23:15
Rula Jebreal
He is as weak as it gets his whole you know, he knows that he's discredited in the eyes of the Palestinians. He knows that people were protesting in the street asking for his resignation. And again, you know, there was a debate more than once, even through Jordanians and even through others, to create some kind of reconciliation. You know, the whole goal is to eradicate completely Hamas in Gaza.
00:50:23:16 - 00:50:58:21
Rula Jebreal
Even if you do that, which I believe is impossible. Hamas leadership is already outside the country. There are, you know, whether in Qatar and they have dialogs with the Russians and with others, they represent a small faction, but they represent a faction. Without including those voices, and I'm not talking about [inaudible] and others, but without including those voices, you will always have, You know, one of the things that you need to think about, for example, what if you look at that, the name of the hostages that they requested to be released from Israeli prison.
00:50:58:23 - 00:51:23:05
Rula Jebreal
Anybody noticed that they asked for the release of a Palestinian Israeli prisoners? They couldn't. And even the name of, you know, name of their their operations always report to Jerusalem. And, you know, it had etc.. They're they're attempting to brand themselves as speaking for the whole of the Palestinians. Fine. They don't. And Palestinians obviously don't want them to be there.
00:51:23:07 - 00:51:46:21
Rula Jebreal
However, to prevent the idea that they should be in national unity, I'm not saying even government entity that represent the Palestinians is also is going to to it's not going to be helpful for Israel or the United States. I think this delusion to dictate to the Palestinians how they should do it and the way and who should be included, excluded, backfired, and will continue to backfire.
00:51:47:02 - 00:52:08:13
Rula Jebreal
I understand there's a lot of blame to go around for the Palestinians, but I think we need to understand that without real pressure on the other sides, nothing was going to change. And you have a generation of young people who are already radicalized after what happened in the 60 days in Gaza. I think we don't understand the devastating effects that will have on generations to come.
00:52:08:18 - 00:52:22:13
Rula Jebreal
So if you want a new leadership and a new generation, a new paradigm in your approach, the pressure has to be put outside and inside have to be put on Israel, because with that, nothing will change.
00:52:22:15 - 00:52:44:12
Rachel Dooley
Thanks, Rula. Thanks, Ethan, as well. Appreciate it. We're getting pretty close to 11, so I'm going to wrap it up here. But if anyone has any additional questions or ideas for topics of future briefings, please get in touch with me over email. That's rdooley@mei.edu. Thank you all for joining us for this on the record briefing.
00:52:44:13 - 00:53:00:07
Rachel Dooley
If you want to take a look at any of our additional resources, you can find them on our website www.mei.edu. And I want to thank our two distinguished panelists, Khalid Elgindy and Rula Jebreal. Thank you both for your insight. And thank you all for spending part of your day with us.