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Zine Labidine Ghebouli is a political analyst and postgraduate scholar at the University of Glasgow. His work focuses on Euro-Mediterranean cooperation and Algeria’s political and security dynamics. He previously worked as a junior consultant at the Asfari Institute for Civil Society and Citizenship and as a research assistant with MEI’s North Africa and the Sahel Program.
A closer look at the impact of domestic and international developments on Algeria’s agenda as the country prepares for a complicated and critical presidential race in December 2024.
On Dec. 25, 2022, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune signed the 2023 budget bill into law. The new finance law lays out unprecedented government spending of $98 billion, the largest state budget in Algeria’s history and a 25% increase from 2022 levels. It also provides clear insight into the authorities’ vision for the future and potential scenarios for Algeria’s direction on the economy and international relations.
The growing wave of Algerians illegally trying to reach Southern European shores while risking death is by no means a new development. But these perilous trans-maritime voyages are also a reminder of the bleak political and economic situation in which Algeria finds itself three years after the 2019 protest movement sparked hope for fundamental change.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in late February could have unprecedented consequences for North Africa. Algeria will be swept up in the resulting shifts, forcing the country’s civilian and military leadership to make difficult international calculations.
The gradual fading out of protests in 2020 amid the surge of the pandemic was the result of both the system’s political maneuvers and the opposition’s own organizational and political weaknesses.
Beset by severe socioeconomic grievances, Algeria is now facing the most challenging economic situation since the 1988 October Riots, when thousands of young people took to the streets to protest an economic crisis caused by the decline in oil prices, austerity measures, and a youth bulge that led to mass unemployment. The latest food shortages are not the first, however, and given the administration’s current approach, they are unlikely to be the last. While the authorities have blamed business owners and even consumer behavior for the crisis, the underlying drivers are more systemic and structural.
On Dec. 19, 2019, Abdelmadjid Tebboune was inaugurated as the eighth president of the Algerian Republic. He took office in the midst of a turbulent political climate following the 2019 popular uprising known as the Hirak. With the confidence of just 40% of the electorate, Tebboune faced steep hurdles in establishing his popular legitimacy. However, beyond his own support, his presidency was also the response of the Algerian political establishment, centered around the military leadership, to the country’s political crisis. As Tebboune reaches the two-year mark of his term as president, it is a natural time to review his administration’s progress so far and assess how its promises and achievements stack up.
في 1 نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني، قُتل ثلاثة مواطنين جزائريين في إقليم الصحراء الغربية المتنازع عليه.
On Nov. 1, three Algerian citizens were killed in the disputed territory of Western Sahara. The Algerian presidency issued a statement accusing Morocco of carrying out an attack with a “sophisticated weapon” on two Algerian transport convoys. This was only the latest episode in a process of escalation between the two countries. The Algerian authorities had previously cut their diplomatic relations with Morocco on Oct. 24 due to rising tensions. Even though the relationship between Algiers and Rabat has long been contentious, the death of three Algerian citizens could prove to be a turning point.
On Oct. 2, Algerian authorities recalled their ambassador to France for consultations amid rising tensions between the two countries. This followed France’s imposition of stricter restrictions on visa quotas for Algerians and critical comments from the French president, Emmanuel Macron. Relations between France and Algeria have long been complicated for historical reasons, but this latest episode comes after a bigger diplomatic crisis between Algeria and Morocco, which resulted in Algiers announcing on Aug. 25 that it was cutting diplomatic relations with Rabat. These actions demonstrate Algeria’s newly assertive foreign policy approach that capitalizes on its military and diplomatic corps. This includes high-level meetings of Army Chief of Staff Said Chengriha and frequent visits by Foreign Minister Ramtane Lamamra to Algeria’s neighbors to rehabilitate the country’s image after years of absence.
