All of this sets up Erdogan nicely as he prepares for the runoff. “First, his coalition’s control of parliament makes it easy for him to argue that a Kilicdaroglu victory would lead to a political stalemate,” wrote Howard Eissenstat, nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute. “Second, and perhaps more importantly, the election results evince a surge in nationalist sentiment. While both Kilicdaroglu and Erdogan can make reasonable claims on this portion of the electorate, Kilicdaroglu’s success is reliant on the Kurdish vote. Without them, he cannot win, but with them, many nationalist voters will not support him.”