The spotlight in America this week is trained on the home front, with growing tensions inside the country over President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown and a showdown unfolding on the streets of Los Angeles. A military parade planned this coming Saturday in the nation’s capital to celebrate the United States Army’s 250th anniversary, also Trump’s 79th birthday, is already drawing the ire of protestors and criticism from Republicans and Democrats alike.
At times like these, the rest of the world has a way of intruding, sometimes unexpectedly, and Trump 2.0’s foreign policy is still struggling to produce a major positive outcome from its frenetic activity trying to end kinetic wars while prosecuting an unprecedented economic war with much of the rest of the world.
A possible sign of progress came this week with some hopes for a deal between China and America on its economic war. In the Middle East, the twin strategic regional challenges of Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continue to loom large without clear signs of significant progress on the horizon.
Inconclusive results nearly five months into Trump 2.0’s foreign policy
The geopolitical storm clouds that have gathered during the whirlwind of uncertainty since Trump returned to office in January have yet to part — and the administration has not seen tangible gains in its global policy initiatives. This week offered some hope that perhaps the tensions between China and America over economic and trade issues might arrive at an interim resolution, with Trump asserting that a deal was “done” after two days of talks in London between top economic officials from both countries.
The details have yet to emerge from these talks, but some respite from recent global economic uncertainty would be welcomed, as the World Bank issued a forecast on June 10 projecting a weakening international outlook due to trade tensions. Even if China and America arrive at a deal, there are many unresolved questions about Trump 2.0’s global economic approach, which leans heavily on tariffs aimed at imposing costs on other countries, including close economic and strategic partners like Japan.
A second key front that Trump has prioritized in his opening months — ending Russia’s war against Ukraine — has yet to produce any significant progress. Despite Trump’s public and private pleas, Russia continues its military campaign against Ukraine, launching a record number of overnight airstrikes against the country this past week. The ongoing attacks by Russia underscore Trump’s inability to resolve the conflict but also signal to the world that America may be incapable of achieving its stated aims.
In this broader geopolitical context, two dynamics are unfolding at home that add to the overall uncertainty of the moment. First, Trump’s decision to mobilize the military, including deploying US Marines on the streets of Los Angeles, America’s second largest city, in response to protests against his controversial immigration policies, has sparked bitter political divisions. Immigration policy is a domestic issue with a strong interlinkage with America’s relations with the rest of the world — and Trump 2.0’s reported plans to send thousands of citizens from other countries, including close allies and partners, to the infamous Guantanamo Bay prison that once held al-Qaeda terror suspects seems designed to provoke greater controversy.
The second thing to watch is the ongoing debate in Congress about Trump’s proposed budget bill. A fight broke out last week between Trump and Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, over this bill, and the divisions between those two men displayed all over social media are now plaguing Trump’s own political party, with the US Senate struggling to come to a consensus.
A pivotal moment for US policy on Iran
It is in this complicated domestic and broader international environment that Trump’s Middle East strategy is situated. In this part of the world, uncertainty abounds on the two big strategic questions of the day, Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
This week, Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, head of US Central Command (CENTCOM) and the top military commander in the Middle East, confirmed during a Congressional hearing that he gave President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth a “wide range” of military options if nuclear talks do not succeed. Kurilla made these remarks in a hearing where he outlined to Congress his posture statement, a strategic look at the threats and opportunities for US policy in the region.
While US military and political officials have spoken for years about various military options they might use if diplomatic engagement over Iran’s nuclear program does not succeed, this statement comes at a pivotal time of uncertainty in ongoing talks between Iran and the United States. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei publicly called a recent US proposal on resolving the nuclear issue “nonsense,” and Trump sounded a pessimistic note this week about the chances for a deal. Iran’s uranium enrichment is a key point of contention, but other issues, including Tehran’s support for terrorist groups, destabilizing actions across the Middle East, and ballistic missiles, remain causes for concern as well. Nonetheless, the United States and Iran have reportedly been trying to head into a sixth round of talks.
What happens with Iran has great potential for wide ripple effects across the region and the world, including global oil markets. On the other major strategic challenge in the region, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, no end in sight appears to the war in Gaza, where the human security situation remains perilous. Saudi Arabia and France are organizing a conference to advance parameters for a two-state solution at the United Nations later this month. But the Trump administration is discouraging countries from participating, and his envoy to Israel made comments this week distancing the US administration from the long-standing bipartisan position in favor of a two-state solution.
With all of these moving parts in Trump’s foreign and domestic policy, it is somewhat surprising that the administration continues to make shifts in key senior staff positions, including a new senior director for the Middle East at the National Security Council reportedly onboarding during the past week after a purge and reassignment of key personnel. These staffing shifts seem to reflect the overall uncertainty that is at the heart of Trump 2.0’s approach to the world and to America as it arrives at its five-month mark in office.
Brian Katulis is a Senior Fellow at MEI.
Photo by Ronoldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images
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